Everyone in this room, everyone on this campus, everyone in the state, in this country. Recency bias simply says we pay the greatest attention to what has happened recently and then, to compoundour error, we forecast whatever has been happening recently into the future-- a very, very bad mistake to make.
So, recency bias is really interesting-- you're going to have to unlock this again for me. Recency bias is interesting because it really infects everything that we do.I'll give you two examples.
which will link you to many of the things that I'm referring to. So recency can play a factor in that.
Another thing that-- I love this quote-- another thing that successful active managers don't pay So recency bias doesn't work when you're trying to think long term.
And, so that is kind of in a nutshell what we're facing. And I mentioned recency bias. So, recency bias is really interesting-- you're going to have to unlock this again for me.
Right, you know, like in sports, it's very tempting to call the current person you're seeing the greatest player, right? And so is there a recency bias? And, you know, I do think, from first principles, I would argue AI will be bigger than all of those.
And then we solve the entire problem of explainability because it's not hard to explain. Like the Google Flu Trends and the recency algorithm, which is very simple, you got it. And the only thing is that many people don't understand that, under uncertainty, you need to make it simple.
It's one of these remarkable things where, again, the experts' ability to predict, even by the way we ask questions in the mental health space, it has a ton of recency bias that you don't have when you can see in real time, the patterns of when people ask for help or need help.
our error, we forecast whatever has been happening recently into the future-- a very, very bad mistake to make. So I'll tell you about something I did that demonstrated recency bias. So when I was a young guy and beginning to look into why stocks did what they did and a big believer in factors--
And I mentioned recency bias. So, recency bias is really interesting-- you're going to have to unlock this again for me. Recency bias is interesting because it really infects everything that we do.
Yeah, well, there's this one chapter in the book called Time to Spiral, which addresses. Is the cognitive bias, the recency illusion, which is our tendency to think that something is new and thus, urgent and worthy of panic, just because it's new to us. When we come across a stimulus, historically, maybe a rustling in the bushes, but now a clickbait headline, that feels threatening or potentially dangerous.
algorithmic biases and my reasons for Desiring all this privacy are less about what you're taking and more about what you're serving me and I know I could turn on the tab of recency but so long as everyone else is subject to being test subjects in digital Laboratories I'd like to keep them company and if you're not convinced this
So they ignore most of the past information and just rely on the most recent one. So we designed the most simple algorithm, called the recency heuristic, which just predicts the next week's flu-related doctor visits by the most recent data point.
We look at volunteer activities, frequency of contact with family, frequency of contact with neighbors. And then finally, the second hill, which are the recency effects, you can see there.
Two stories that I think are interesting that will help us understand why the long term is against us. The first is human nature-- we are very temporal creatures and there is a bias in behavioral finance called the recency bias and we are all subject to it.
And I said, oh, I realize why we don't. We don't because we are in an environment where our very genes are rebelling against us and letting things like recency bias and availability bias-- I love that one.
When it comes to assessing performance, there was that great New York Times article a couple weeks ago about people analytics at Google and how you're given cues when you, for example, fill out a performance appraisal form. Keep in mind the recency effect, the primacy effect, the halo effect. So this is an organization that already has those things in mind. So why credit and blame? Why did I write this book? Well, as I work as an organizational psychologist, I work with individuals and teams in organizations large and small, for
So I have to back myself, you know, I still think that's the case. You know, when you asked this question, I was thinking, well, do we have a recency bias? Right, you know, like in sports, it's very tempting to call the current person you're seeing the greatest player, right?
conduct criminal history checks on individuals who are seeking to work at that place of employment. Many of those result in disqualifications if there is any mar on one's record, regardless of the recency of offense, or the severity of the offense, or the relevance of the offense to the job at hand.
And Google and Brian and his people help you do that by saying, "Keep the context in mind. There were contextual factors that make things easier or harder for this person." And make sure you're keeping in mind biases, the recency effect, the primacy effect, etc. Start with positive expectations. So again, as I mentioned before, giving people the benefit of the doubt, looking for credit rather than blame, will be self-fulfilling. Any questions about those?