Social scientists are interested in understanding how people's careers evolve for a variety of reasons. Predicting job transitions can be helpful to governments who may be planning for disruption if retail or manufacturing declines, or if AI replaces jobs.It can also help companies design programs to help workers manage their occupational paths or to assist laid-off employees.
made a mistake. We'll talk about that as well. But you developed a bit of a reputation because you're very good at predicting things. So, which of these five outcomes do you think is most probable to happen?Oh god, this is super interesting to me. My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe
A little prediction goes a long way. Predicting better than guessing generally more than sufficient to render a great improvement to the bottom line and improving the efficiencies of large-scale operations.And it's built on these kinds of discoveries from data.
Hornblower might be the beginning of a way to think about "Star Trek," but it certainly was not the end. Predicting the future, whether in real life or what we term science fiction, is a tricky business.And most prognosticators, professional and amateur, get the future wrong.
Right, yeah. That was really quite brilliant. Predicting 2022. There was one guy, William Miller, who predicted this particular date.It didn't happen. It's good to predict the day if it works.
I don't say-- it's not prose reuse, but it's efficient. predicting or trying to even project any kind of outcome, would be near impossible, because as far as peace and not peace.
And one of the things that I've seen over and over and over again is that-- forgive my language-- but we suck at predicting the future. I mean, we just do a terrible job.And to give you an example of that, I'm going to pick on a book, which is actually a really good book.
Many others find the same, concluding, and I'm going to quote, that social media is one of the “least influential factors” in predicting teen mental health. For most adolescents, like boys, there's no association.
They're pretty good for things like total sleep time. They're really, really bad. And a major pitfall for wearables is predicting things like deep sleep and REM sleep. Do you know what I you know I was I was thinking about I was thinking about certain times where um I've done certain things behaviorally and then I
We'll convene. We will advocate. for predicting behaviors. The encoding-decoding problems are a subject of tremendous activity.
We have to specify what we mean by unfair. at predicting the thing you really wanted it to predict .
So how many likes do you think do you need to reveal to an algorithm for it to be better than your work colleagues at predicting your responses to a personality questionnaire? Do you have great work colleagues?
And yet, it turns out that 250 likes on Facebook allow a linear regression to be better at predicting your personality than your own spouse. So now the question is, how does it work?
I mean, even six years ago, people were not sure that you could really scale these large language models, just based on language and kind of predicting language, to actually build a conception of the world essentially, and at least approximate intelligence clearly pretty well. So this is the key insight for the last six years, which is that a model can learn so much just from human language.
Then you have the cloud computing platforms. It could be around predicting customer churn.
and the employment those jobs create doesn't keep up with new jobs. And there is a scenario you don't need 100% unemployment like Musk is predicting . At 20% unemployment the French had a revolution in Weimar Germany turned very ugly. At 20% unemployment especially among youth especially young men tend to get very angry and take to the streets.
outlook is predicting temperatures and rainfall far outside of global averages. And a stronger El Niño means more intense shifts in weather. It makes a parade of storms more likely to happen.
being proactive and anticipating the challenges of what it would mean to actually get it deployed on the scale of things relatively very well. with respect to predicting exactly the right thing with business considerations.
And you were predicting the future of transport, the future of work, what this was going to mean for us.
When it comes to predicting the weather, we expect the weather prediction to be done ahead of when that weather is forecast.
People keep predicting the demise of venture capital.
And rather than predicting exactly what's going to be able to happen, you can predict the probability of different things happening.
So the muscle of predicting some of these things is actually really useful to exercise, and here are a couple of the scenarios we built.
accuracy of predicting emotions and is that better or worse than people who
if they're accurately predicting the probability of readmission.
We're predicting , we look at each state, at least the largest state, as a whole.
So we're predicting that the vast majority of galaxies that James Webb lets us see out at the higher redshift are going to be these elongated things.
I'd been predicting markets, futures and credit default swaps and stuff.
I am not predicting inflation.
We are predicting the rise of these other places around the country, indeed, around the world.
It's predicting behavior. For example, they bought, I think, the largest ticketing service for movie tickets.
So the LSAT is predicting about 14% of the variance in first-year classes-- this was at Penn-- and 15% of the variance in second year, which
If everybody's predicting 2.4% growth for this year and if I predict minus 2 and it turns out to be minus 2
And you're predicting it at different time points how much time do I have until I reach a threshold.
This is "Star Trek," predicting the future since 1966.
These cues are predicting actual financial cheating versus cooperative behavior.
I have trouble predicting the future, because things are changing so fast.
improve the model by predicting that it's not going to burst into flames.
Futurists were predicting that in 1790.
They were predicting it again and again and again.
And the difficulty of predicting beyond it.
They're now partially predicting openings by Twitter activity, trending, certainly an
no problem predicting where an electron will go, but we have -- but we cannot foresee electronic crisis or, kind of emerging financial crisis and so on. We have no problem turning on and
way of of predicting what would happen during the season. You would cut open a cut open a pig and take out its spleen
prices so it's predicting a minus
I'm predicting we're going to see 85 to 90 percent under 30 voter turnout of registered voters in this election which
And "if someone is very good at predicting behavior and rewards predicted irrationality richly, then irrationality will be richly rewarded."
of protein structure prediction by accurately predicting the three-dimensional shapes of proteins.
which is when you're predicting the large amounts of mostly internet text.
in how well the models are at predicting and how well they perform.