How to pronounce “overconfident” in English

You can see that those who performed worse had the largest mismatch between their confidence and performance.They were the most overconfident.Those who performed the best were actually slightly underconfident.

Overconfidence and myopia. Yeah.Easy to be overconfident, easy to be myopic, have tunnel vision, and both go hand in hand.And there,

And now they're in a real mess as a result. And the Iranians, you know, you can say that maybe they're getting alittle bit too overconfident here, because their economy is in a terrible state. They're blockaded by the Americans. They have a lot of internalissues. But they calculate they can tough this one out in a way that the Americans can't. And you know what? They may even

have doubt and uncertainty, you don't stay sharp.You end up being overconfident.So this embracing reality is really important.

Yeah, yeah, it's amazing.like not being overconfident by having kids make

It actually helps you understand where they are so that you can help them wherever they are.Because they might be overconfident, overdemanding, or not enough, obviously.So I had the other, the second bit, is focus on effort.

We seek evidence that confirms our beliefs and blow off evidence that just disconfirms them.We're all overconfident about our knowledge, our wisdom and our rectitude.But people are capable of reason if they adopt certain norms-- free speech, open criticism and debate, logical analysis,

One person made the summit that year from another team, a Russian guy.He got overconfident. One thing about the back country is you never go alone.

The predominant personality trait of most investors and nearly every amateur trader.To be overconfident is to be ignorant of your own ignorance.In the financial markets, overcoming overconfidence is essential and extremely expensive.

were 90% correct. And they thought the answers were 90% correct. In fact, they got 60% of the answers wrong.The most overconfident industry in the entire country is the computer and software industry.People in the computer industry, in these tests, thought they got 95% of the answers correct. In fact, they got 80% wrong.

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onSo you wanna be slightly overconfident, like by 5%.

All the scores were roughly in the middle.This meant that poor performers were the most overconfident and the highest performers were actually slightly under confident.This is exactly what Dunning and Kruger found, so maybe overconfidence isn't entirely due to how much we know, but also because most of us express

and assessing whether the desire for status led participants to exaggerate their abilities.The results were clear, overconfident individuals were more likely to lead, assert themselves, and maintain influence, even when their actual abilities were mid.And the evidence certainly shows people react better to confident individuals.

Or is this really sort of from a patent?The key thing to understand here is that we're all overconfident.If you do surveys of people, most people say that they are above average when it comes to driving.

Think IBM trying to have a computer that plays chess, or a computer that plays Jeopardy!, and all the stuff that you guys do.We are not good at predicting the future and we are overconfident.

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onit's really something that society wants you to be overconfident.

this illustrates the second aspect of the illusion of confidence, which is that we tend to overrate our own abilities in various areas. We're overconfident in our own skills. Letme try a little test on you to see how overconfident you are in your own skills. I have a question that I got that I adapted from a study by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, two veryclever social psychologists. For each one of you, I'd like you to think what percent of Google employees have a worse sense of humor than your own? Now, I know you're all

False!- Most of the time, being overconfident isn't a huge issue, but for Nick Leeson, the stakes soon became very high.Leeson's plan to recover his team's loss was to bet that the Japanese stock market would go up, so he went long on the top 225 companies in Japan,

Yeah. Maybe being humble about what we think of as the best life.Yeah. And if we're overconfident in what we think of as best, I don't know. Life surprises you in a lot of ways.I think that's really, really true. I think like we are deeply confused as a species about what is the good. Like the

I remember I really liked the part about the surgeon who's overconfident because it's routine and the cue words of being able to have something there that can bring you back to that,

They're not inconsistent. They're not overconfident.

Participants were asked to give ranges for factual questions like the length of a river or the population of a city.People's ranges were consistently too narrow, which effectively meant they were being overconfident, and those who had worse short-term memory were more often wrong and more likely to be overconfident.Another study conducted by Conte in 2023 asked participants to keep sequences of letters in their mind while they judged their own performance.

People who express more confidence in employment interviews or political campaigns, for instance,do earn the confidence of interviewers and potential voters, even if they're being overconfident.They can't actually deliver.

Oh. Darn. If you start getting overconfident and you wanted to do, like, a backflip while you're at it, then you're going to mess it up. Yeah.

That person guessing thought they were, like, wildly overconfident.

In fact, even though that advisor is more likely to be overconfident-- when they got it wrong, they got it wrong by more--

If we don't know that something is true or we don't want to seem overconfident, communicating uncertainty can be a good thing to do.

And they found, on average, men are overconfident or overestimate their abilities by about 30%.

That, to me, seems overconfident.

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onquite agree in my head is that while I agree that we live in a world that is overconfident and we're not calibrated to what the reality is and that most things fall on a normal distribution

And still just based on the prosodic cues related to how that person is delivering that line in another language, the listener still feels wildly overconfident

And similarly, if people are quite outspoken or joyous, it doesn't make them overconfident and arrogant.

On the other hand, if we're a junior member of a team and we've just joined, sometimes seeming overconfident can actually be detrimental.

Like, we're terrible at this, and, ironically, we're way overconfident.

It's so interesting. Columbia University has studied this proclivity on the part of men to kind of be overconfident or overconfident

And they're gonna take whatever you have. The second trait is what you might call "equipoise," which is having the serenity and maturity to monitor the biases and shortcomings inyour own mind. And so, this, for example, we all tend to be overconfident.Ninety-five percent of the professors in America believe they have above average teaching skills.

And that's because this overconfidence trait is incredibly gender linked.And so, men drown at twice the rate of women because men have tremendous confidence in their swimming ability after they've been drinking. And so, men are way more overconfident.But some people have the ability, what they call meta-cognition, to look inside their own mind and correct for their own biases, what I call "equipoise." And so, there's a

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onDavid Brooks: OK. Well, I'd ask you to go work at Lehman Brothers if you were so in favor of overconfidence. Just teasing. I think the right answer is you should be mildly overconfident.

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onDavid Brooks: No, that's your point. But you don't wanna be 50% overconfident. So, and this is, again, gender-linked. If you ask guys what your IQ is, the male response

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onFEMALE #2: Yeah. David Brooks: And so, you wanna be slightly overconfident. I never would've started the book if I knew how hard it was gonna be. And I certainly wouldn't have gone off on a book

criminals who seem to think that they're better at crime than they really are. Now,this illustrates the second aspect of the illusion of confidence, which is that we tend to overrate our own abilities in various areas. We're overconfident in our own skills. Letme try a little test on you to see how overconfident you are in your own skills. I have a question that I got that I adapted from a study by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, two very

sometimes. Nonetheless, it is a little bit; it is a little bit fanciful. Now what about something more serious and more important, and especially something more objective, where instead ofusing these kind of tests, we really know how good people are? Are people still overconfident in their own abilities when they have all the information they need to truly know howgood they are? Well, Dan Simons and I, along with Dan Benjamin, who is now an economics professor at Cornell, a few years ago, did a study to look at this. We went to the environment

And it has obstacle avoidance, it has navigation assistance, auto landing gear, payload detection, and auto return to home, which I've used quite a few times because you might get a little overconfident

We suggest the two culprits are overconfidence and myopia.Overconfidence and myopia. Yeah.Easy to be overconfident, easy to be myopic, have tunnel vision, and both go hand in hand.

People in the computer industry, in these tests, thought they got 95% of the answers correct. In fact, they got 80% wrong.And that's because this overconfidence trait is incredibly gender linked.And so, men drown at twice the rate of women because men have tremendous confidence in their swimming ability after they've been drinking. And so, men are way more overconfident.

To be overconfident is to be ignorant of your own ignorance.In the financial markets, overcoming overconfidence is essential and extremely expensive.Bull, noun-- a person who believes that an asset will go up in price.

This meant that poor performers were the most overconfident and the highest performers were actually slightly under confident.This is exactly what Dunning and Kruger found, so maybe overconfidence isn't entirely due to how much we know, but also because most of us expressat least kind of middle-of-the-road confidence.