How to pronounce “overconfidence” in English

sometimes in costly, embarrassing, and dangerous ways.- Overconfidence has been implicated in almost every big disaster, from the sinking of the Titanic to the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, to the loss of the space shuttle Challenger.But overconfidence isn't reserved for just a few reckless individuals.

with, how many dates have I recently had?Overconfidence from misprocessing information like this can be disastrous.So, why are our brains wired this way?

I mean, you might expect natural selection to have wiped out the confidently incorrect, but there is evidence that overconfidence can actually be advantageous.Overconfidence can massively improve your status.In a scientific version of "The Apprentice," scientists in 2012 compared participants' own assessments of their skill with objective measures.

And three days later, Barings, one of the oldest and most trusted banks in the world, collapsed.Overconfidence was at least partially to blame for its downfall.Realizing the walls were closing in, Leeson fled to Malaysia and then Thailand, but his escape was short-lived.

We suggest the two culprits are overconfidence and myopia.Overconfidence and myopia. Yeah.Easy to be overconfident, easy to be myopic, have tunnel vision, and both go hand in hand.

Are those valuable and respected there?Overconfidence is the sin of the expert.

They form a little bit of a theme, as you might imagine.Overconfidence-- a belief unjustified by the evidence that one knows more or is better than others.The predominant personality trait of most investors and nearly every amateur trader.

- Overconfidence has been implicated in almost every big disaster, from the sinking of the Titanic to the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, to the loss of the space shuttle Challenger.But overconfidence isn't reserved for just a few reckless individuals.We can all fall victim to it.

But management's faith in Leeson's talent was unshakeable, and they dismissed these concerns.Barings' overconfidence in Leeson and Leeson's overconfidence in himself would be the bank's downfall.The figures are so big, it seems like the ultimate confidence trick, but there's a partial explanation for the delusion on both sides.

Are those valuable and respected there?So overconfidence is what produces a housing crisis or a stock market collapse, because it's the people who have the authority, who have the power.

I don't know. I mean, I'm confident I can get it back at that stage.- But Leeson's staggering overconfidence would create a debt of gargantuan proportions and lead to one of the biggest collapses in banking history.- It's easy for me to make the case at overconfidence as the most dangerous of the human biases.

Those who performed the best were actually slightly underconfident.This suggests that overconfidence may be linked to how much we know.Those who know less think that they know more than they do, but to me, this effect looks a little like a statistical artifact

The figures are so big, it seems like the ultimate confidence trick, but there's a partial explanation for the delusion on both sides.Leeson's and Barings' overconfidence was amplified by the complexity and unpredictability of the market and the trades he was making.It's sort of an issue of feedback.

So one is lack of focus, lack of a plan.This one's overconfidence. Everything is working so great that you can do no wrong.And that's when not good things happen, so overconfidence.

Improv is full of those moments.There was this incredible overconfidence that I think maybe was rooted in exactly what you're referring to, all the paradigms from the past.

He directed "Cabin in the Woods." He wrote chunks of "Cloverfield." He was one of the staff writers on "Buffy the Vampire Slayer."Arrogance and overconfidence-- I don't think anyone will accuse me of those traits.

Are those valuable and respected there?The issue of overconfidence is really critical.

Are those valuable and respected there?And that's where overconfidence gets you killed.

But if I'm right, I'm going to make 50 times my money.We get full of overconfidence and hubris.

So it's really like a jumping off point for to do further research if you see something that's wrong.Other examples of overconfidence include the Hunt brothers with silver in the 1970s and then long-term capital management.

So it's really like a jumping off point for to do further research if you see something that's wrong.I had my own overconfidence story.

- Well, practicing and being aware of our calibration is the obvious way to improve, but so is being intellectually humble.- I think that the best medicine for overconfidence is not so much information as feedback,and I get plenty of that.

What should you make harder to do in any organization?We suggest the two culprits are overconfidence and myopia.Overconfidence and myopia. Yeah.

Of course, if there were a psychologist here, they would say that is never going to happen.There is a well-known bias of overconfidence.People predictably think they are better than they actually are.

And we want to be able to fix those things.And the last one's overconfidence.The reason you feel confident is because all of the things you did right.

Are those valuable and respected there?So the real danger comes from overconfidence, because we trust experts with a lot of power.

the very drive that drives us to do great work is full of arrogance and fullof huis and full of overconfidence and that very Drive is what will sort of limit us from listening to otheropinions uh and so we have this tension we need this drive in order to do great

People in the computer industry, in these tests, thought they got 95% of the answers correct. In fact, they got 80% wrong.And that's because this overconfidence trait is incredibly gender linked.And so, men drown at twice the rate of women because men have tremendous confidence in their swimming ability after they've been drinking. And so, men are way more overconfident.

- But Leeson's staggering overconfidence would create a debt of gargantuan proportions and lead to one of the biggest collapses in banking history.- It's easy for me to make the case at overconfidence as the most dangerous of the human biases.Overconfidence gets us into all sorts of trouble.

Together, these studies suggest that assessing your accuracy is a mentally taxing task.So, overconfidence isn't necessarily about arrogance.It's your brain working at the limits of what it can track and hold.

And that's why they don't disappear and why it's becoming increasingly dense.where you look at psychological biases that people have-- overconfidence, or procrastination, other kinds of things-- and then try and understand how that plays into decision making

Another thing that-- I love this quote-- another thing that successful active managers don't payYou know, overconfidence bias-- I'm sure that many in the room have that.

Another thing that-- I love this quote-- another thing that successful active managers don't payI certainly do. Overconfidence bias is, hey, I'm a stud.

In the '70s, the US had double digit inflation.Because you'll see a lot of behavioral bias-- overconfidence, right?

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onFEMALE #2: I'd like you to talk more about overconfidence. So, the thing that doesn't

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onAnd so, slight overconfidence--. Well the other thing, dual consciousness, and this is what I cover in politics, dual consciousness is tremendously important. The best politicians,

seems too good to be true and there's only one experiment that backs it up, you should be a little skeptical.Because it's important these experiments replicate, and overconfidence is one that is a very robust finding.Two of my favorite studies-- there's one from K. Patricia Cross in which she goes and finds psychology lecturers.

Two of my favorite studies-- there's one from K. Patricia Cross in which she goes and finds psychology lecturers.And even people who are very well aware of the bias of overconfidence, even 90% of them think they are better lecturers than average.There's another study, Svenson, that's slightly more ridiculous.

Are those valuable and respected there?Ellen asks, you mention in your book that overconfidence can be incredibly damaging to an organization.

To be overconfident is to be ignorant of your own ignorance.In the financial markets, overcoming overconfidence is essential and extremely expensive.Bull, noun-- a person who believes that an asset will go up in price.

And this sense of entitlement and a really sort of a narcissistic tendency will the overconfidence it

That this is going to be so easy, overconfidence, bias, we can just roll it out.

So, something that various people, including you, have talked about is the need to move towards a more incentive-based system, where you're making economic decisions based onSo, I have a problem with the overconfidence thing. Like, I think that it's not really a socially attuned thing to be calibrated, like have your confidence be calibrated. That

story about the bubble and psychological factors refers to a lot of biases like overconfidence that get involved so this

This meant that poor performers were the most overconfident and the highest performers were actually slightly under confident.This is exactly what Dunning and Kruger found, so maybe overconfidence isn't entirely due to how much we know, but also because most of us expressat least kind of middle-of-the-road confidence.

conviction. - So it's the fact that it's very difficult to detect lies and overconfidence in policing creates a huge problem.

availability, representativeness, overconfidence, loss aversion, status quo bias, framing.

Well, is this policy, is this showing overconfidence?

Is the person we're considering, are they full of overconfidence and confident because of their experience completely basing everything