And you should remember that the real meaning is actual conflict of interest. Forecasting , noun-- the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant.A task that in one way or another employs most people on Wall Street.
regulation um so this is a a second topic that's particularly important um forecasting the future of technology and that's where we'll surprise him because technology expands the order
Then you have the cloud computing platforms. my forecasting accuracy-- And we've shown this actually can go up pretty significantly, right?
Before that, I worked at OpenAI. AI forecasting ? Yeah, so think about how like you know, industry analysts who work for hedge funds and stuff will make these forecasts of like here is, you know, how many cars Tesla will be selling 5 years from now or like
who are interested could order the first part and if they liked it they could order the other they could pre-order the the forecasting in forecasting in future
Then you have the cloud computing platforms. And our demand forecasting is way off.
Um I currently run the AI Futures Project, which is a small nonprofit that mostly focuses on forecasting the future of AI. Before that, I worked at OpenAI.
So, for the average person, what do they feel and how does it impact them when there's a market crash like the one that you're forecasting ? The high flyers will lay people off and and a lot of people will feel less rich. And as you acquire uh money in the stock market, a small fraction of that, two or three percent,
We have been rummaging through hair magazines, trying and regretting a hairstyle that doesn’t suit our head shape These data cannot do forecasting . But it can do validations.
It's to see what would happen, right, with the weather. Or we're forecasting the population or the spread of a disease. We enter different variables, and we run them again and again and again.
So it's hard to see here-- but taking his weather reading. So scientific-- or not forecasting -- the discussion of science in Ireland goes back to the 1600s. And the era, if you want to call it era, is when the telegraphic cable was laid
in the adjoining. So that's why you can probably hear of a rural frost or frost out in the country. And sometimes we're forecasting frost again. But that's because you live in the city.
So it's . And I just picked it up. This is called ensemble forecasting . So just look at precipitation-- precipitation is anything that falls from the sky.
They've since then backed down from that. But they're still forecasting a huge increase in traffic, which means more density, which means the safety margins are going to be reduced a lot in air traffic.
I have no idea how long it will. Everybody was forecasting it would go up, and then something in the economy will happen and it will go down. I think what you need to understand about interest rates, when the Fed raises interest rates, usually the market has already anticipated that raise.
And this is one reason why we have an increasing problem with virulent forms of E. coli. have a forecasting for disease-- a disease forecast so you could know in advance.
Typically, other agencies have kind of operational responsibility. NOAA does weather forecasting . USGS does earthquake observation and response.
How do you win? And Galbraith says the forecasting is futile.
How do you win? So then macro-forecasting is not critical to investing.
being that you can cut your power bill by up to 80%. They're forecasting that people go entirely off the grid. And maybe some die hards will, but I think mainly, you stay on the grid but you cut your electricity use by up to 80%.
There's much forecasting done outside of the government on a daily basis or is mostly the weather servers cause a little bit of ?
into account long-term forecasting , change in development, that kind of stuff into setting insurance rates for...? >> MASS: I know they're thinking about it.
going on or the forecasting ? >> Just to know what's going on.
intellectual stimulation and forecasting the working up of solutions but it does
most of your time forecasting interest rates.
quantity so she does demand forecasting very well uh but she's got a limited uh physical space right in the cart so I was Uh and and and and by the way, so payment is so easy here. I just, you know,
Everybody should be afraid that their jobs are going to be lost. And I know this because I went to OpenAI in 2022. What I did there was forecasting what the what the next couple years might look like. And unfortunately, most of the world is kind of asleep at the wheel and doesn't really realize what's going on with AI. So, I resigned.
There’s always some uncertainty in forecasting — much like what happened with the L’Aquila earthquake.
and prepare for what some are forecasting to be a full-on superintelligent AI takeover in the not-too-distant future.
She doesn't have any exposure to forecasting , or to capital asset management, to long range strategic planning.
Now, in Ireland, we don't really use probability forecasting much, because our weather is so variable. It's easier-- see if you're forecasting for, let's say, Dublin or New York, you can give more of a probability for one moment in time or for a midday, or for a particular day.
So our first mission statement-- "Ensure the protection and safety of life and property by issuing a public weather forecast and warnings." So if there was a method of forecasting a really bad winter ahead, that's my job. That's what the public pay me for.
that are running on these forecasting systems. So that is really important guidance that helps improve the system. That's why they've gotten so much better. So there is a very
Yeah, so I went to OpenAI in 2022. Uh a large part of what I did there was more forecasting . AI 2027 is a scenario that you may have heard of. I did like smaller you know, lower effort versions of them internally for just internal circulation of like here's some guesses as to what
Uh yes, that's right. April. Yeah. What were you forecasting in here? What are What are the key things that you said in here for people that haven't read it? The high-level version of it is they automate the coding, then they automate the rest of the research process, then the pace of progress
We weren't very good at hop contracting or forecasting what we were going to sell in the future, so we kind of took what we got.
And nobody's right consistently in making deviant forecasts. So the bottom line for me is their forecasting is not valuable. And that's something that my experience has told me.
What do you think about the very local measurement of forecasting with those, that they have people, like, in weather stations? I mean, are you familiar with that?
I don't want to get into the forecasting arguments about whether it's 'double-dip recessions' or 'flattening out' and so on. But, I mean, you get the trend of my argument.
the the protagonist of the story which is Adam uh and Adam Falls in a bit of a gray space in between this Adam actually falls in the middle of the aisle because he started out strategic forecasting working for Corporation State actors Spooks I'm just going to adjust this slightly because I seem to be getting away from the
And one of the more interesting things I've found was a scenario forecasting exercise by the design company IDEA, which we've had some interactions with at
One thing I found helpful in writing my book is that you talk about forecasting practices in different fields, and so you can learn implicitly from that.
There is always uncertainty. The new way of forecasting , the way that's going to dominate the century is probabilistic forecasting . And the way it works is, you don't do one
Well, the weather service is responsible for the forecasting and warnings, but the private sector is really, you know, coming into the forecasting business. In fact, some
Then you have the cloud computing platforms. Yeah, I can use your time series data to do your demand forecasting .
Then you have the cloud computing platforms. If I can get in that temperature or other data, then my forecasting accuracy combined-- that data combined with some advances in models,
And on that level of granularity, that's what differentiates it from forecasting , which would be an overall is the economy going to go up or down?
Yeah. Now, it turns out forecasting the stock market is nearly impossible.
Yeah. And when it comes to things like COVID and forecasting the stock market, we are dumb,
Maybe they'll be running it a million times with a million different perturbation at that stage. But you know, ECMWF-- it's the world leader in medium-range forecasting . So by medium range, we're talking about 10 days.