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intuitions and that applies to political forecasters and to stock pickers and to all of us. Quite frequently we have intuitions that are false. And they come up and come to mind and theyare subjectively undistinguishable from expert intuitions. So I'm now talking of people who have intuitions that are not based on expertise. And they come. They're System 1 in the sensethat they are effortless and automatic. And where do they come from? And that is what I'm going to try to illuminate, shed some light on in the rest of the talk. So I want
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