Reversion to the mean says that an outcome that is far from average will be followed by an outcome with an expected value closer to the average.
No reversion to the mean.
And that you have reversion , and you have Control-Z, and all of those things are kind of novel ideas.
and the reversion to the Shiite Sunni schism, overlaid with tribal rivalries, overlaid
but the rate of reversion to the mean.
You're in a manual reversion mode.
that there would be some mean reversion to bring the price back to intrinsic value.
But we understand it to mean mean reversion , and so what this talk is about is
what are the actual mechanics of mean reversion .
What are the things that make mean reversion occur.
And it turns out that mean reversion acts on those portfolios as well to pull the high growth back and to improve the low growth.
And then there was some mean reversion as well which pushed down the high rate of growth and made the high growth value less
This question is about the mean reversion .
The second observation-- second lesson-- is about reversion to the mean.
And the reason is that there is this mean reversion in return on invested capital.
By the way, reversion to the mean is a fascinating concept because I think most people have a sense that they know what it means.
Eventually, you had reversion to the mean.
So it's better to be assuming that there's going to be some mean reversion , positive and negative, rather than to naively extrapolate out
Now here's the one thing I think is very interesting and practical about this reversion to the mean concept and the skill/luck
I'm sure many of you are engineers, so you understand the concept of reversion to the mean.
that you know there's of course action is equal to reaction so it I kind of mentally related it to mean reversion
If you're on the pure skill side of the continuum, there's no reversion to the mean at all.
The trick is to see that, so far there's this reversion to the mean.
And really, new media and its similarity to really old media is a sort of reversion to the way things used to be.
So that, in Wall Street terms, that's called mean reversion .
And when we are below trend line, that's when you can expect, okay, at some point there's going to be a reversion back to
They said, well, if it is in fact the case that there is this main reversion in the fundamentals of the business, if there's mean reversion
You imagine that your current state will continue on when, in actual fact, mean reversion is a much more likely outcome.
Amongst the universe of companies, do you think there are some particular companies or industries that are more flexible towards mean reversion
I think it's the better metric for the reason that I've outlined here, that return on invested capital, mean reversion , is a very real phenomenon.
But if you actually observe the behavior of most people, they don't act as if they understand reversion to the mean.
continuum, which is it turns out where you lie on the luck/skill continuum defines the rate of reversion to the mean-- not just that it occurs,
So for example, if you're on the pure luck side of the continuum, there's complete reversion to the mean.
So if you know where your activity is, you automatically have a sense for the rate of reversion to the mean.
and , you know, all four of them, get reversioned and rearticulated.