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Kaufman: One level up, cross your arms.Priors. Hands together. Just go like this.
Priors.
Bayesian priors of your brain, your mental model of your brain.
over the cultural priors that you can embed in these LLMs that then, you know, as LLMs
I think my priors are that, you know, I think a lot of people on the other side of the aisle think that once we reach human level AI,
with the priors and parameterize things better.
simply because they flout the Bayesian priors.
first one we believed our priors were that
funders maybe they didn't confirm the priors of Journal editors for whatever reason we're going to have a much better sense of studies that have been done and
It's not gonna model its priors or its uncertainties about the world very accurately, right?
It means that our logical mind can't override our priors.
Because that's what worked in the past-- your priors.
it because it's interesting and it and it confirms my priors?
We're very much built to affirm our priors.
So I just want to give you a sense of my priors, a sort of perspective I have on this as a historian.
But that wouldn't violate any of my priors.
Okay, so that's the first term the priors.
And that's another way of getting people to take into account Bayesian priors.
People that are much more comfortable simply following folks that confirm their priors
But then there's a lot of other cases where people have strong priors that a particular correlations probably are causal.
The result is that an extreme finding, even if it flies in the face of your priors,
So this is another very interesting field at the moment where deep learning can be leveraged to actually understand geometric priors
I would argue there are a fair number of Americans that genuinely either don't have really strong ideological priors or are intellectually rigorous
And I tended to fall more to, I guess I call them Bayesian priors.
When you say, "Well, those are his priors," the term 'priors' comes from the first term in Bayes' theorem, the prior probability of a hypothesis.
You might be able to alter it by exposing yourself to different situations or whatever and changing what we in machine learning call priors—so changing your experiences.
So I said, I came into the job with some priors, which I had to revise, and I have to revise my priors on the use of economics.
and they update downward and so this gives you a sense that that's quite consistent with our priors that people are incorporating this new information
"Like, why do we not," because I guess I have some priors that maybe this is an evolutionary thing, like the submission dominant,
in the 18th century-- namely, you should adjust your credence and hypothesis according to how plausible it was a priori, your priors, according to how likely
Or it might, there's selecting the priors, which is more of an art than a science.
a different story if we take politics out of it and just look at demographics regardless of your gender race geography income education level we share eight of the 10 top priors we have
Now, they could be wrong, and they could have all sorts of biases and priors, but here's what they think.
One interpretation of this estimator is that it can be interpreted as a Bayesian posterior, where I'm assuming that I have priors on
And this is my personal experience, I cannot over generalize but have to say that I came into that job with some priors with the how to revise afterwards.
literature for failed studies that never got published maybe they didn't get published because they didn't conform to the they didn't confirm the priors of
and that is what going to shape your remed utility right all the memories I mean emotions and all these things the updating of your priors and so on that
It was just the, the How do you deal with your personal, your, your, your your, your personal might call prior, priors in terms of how the world works?
And to me, that has a much higher likelihood in my Bayesian inference than sci-fi based priors, right?
It's very difficult and we can, I think people would probably argue about how you as assign those priors.
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