months, as long as they up that rate sufficiently, that's not likely to be an ongoing fight. So, we're talking about Iran versus the US, um the Israelis for the time being not a direct part of that war, thoughobviously they did initially go to war with the Americans back in February.
price of oil for longer, willing to actually implement a blockade. So even if they haven't caused much damage to Iran , they are showing a greater willingness to take pain and that that means that the Iranians might got notget paid off for a very long time if ever. So try that again. And the third option is some level of military
service member members have died. We know that 1700 civilians at least in Iran have died. So how how can we how can the like average layperson understand what is going on what thetrajectory is in any kind of way that they can believe?
Please listen to the podcast. - "Iran Breakdown," by the way is the name of the podcast. - Yeah, and David's the president of the Institute for Science International Security and by the way, spent decades on this.
Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started. And this is literally the nightmare scenario thatwe've been worrying about. And the reason you're having me here is because in the next few months, the world economic crisis is going to grow.
month by month by month uh when we were first here the big surprise for most people was that we bombed the regime in Iran and it still stood. It survived even though uh we killed the supremeleader and something like 137 of their top leaders. Think about that. So that would be like if somebody killed our
the before February 28, Iran did not control the straight of Hormuz. What Iran did is it moved from survival to ambition. So Iran saw there was anopportunity with the bombing uh because the United States had no mil we didn't even have our navy here. There was no
means whatsoever uh to sort of offset this this uh Iran 's uh control of the straight of hormones. Nothing at all. Iran took this as an opportunity and the opportunity was to seize power. So is itfair to hypothesize that actually this
I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of these drones." You've got to persuade Iran 's ports. That's one of the reasons President Trump put the blockade back on. It's because what happened here is
I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of these drones." You've got to persuade Iran 's been asking for this. This is part of the general escalation that we're seeing.
I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of these drones." You've got to persuade Iran control the straight of foremost?
Okay? And so the first thing is that Iran can choose to fight a war of attrition. What's a war of attrition? Awar of attrition is a game of uncle.
And so, it's a game of uncle where the Americans are trying to create as much damage as possible in every nation and Iran 's response is trying to destroy as much of of the global economy aspossible to force the world to pressure America to call the war off. So, that's
So, you think the United States is going to put ground troops in, Iran are going to resist, and then chaos is going to break out in the United Iran . It's It's what the Americans call shock and awe.
this incredibly charismatic military leader, Kasamsulammani, the head of the Kuds force as it was called in Iran . And Iran was so angry and they were going to destroy the United States. Death to America. What do they actually do?Nothing. And then last June, Iranians are developing their ballistic missiles. They're developing their
First, the honest answer is it's impossible to know because this is right now the the the internal decision-m of Iran is extremely buttoned up. Um and it they ain't talking to anyone uh aboutthat. But it's very easy to assess two things.
what's happening right here. Iran also, again, I'm trying to put myself in the the mind of, you know, the incentive structure of the Iranianleaders. They can't let it be seen or known that dropping bombs on us made us
Iran has figured out that we can't beat them. We're not weakening Iran . We havestrengthened Iran and we can't stop their drone attacks. And what you're seeing is far more chaotic
So, how does that apply to what's going on now? In simple terms, what's going on? Iran has figured out that uh we can't beat them. That's what's going on, Stephen. They are figuring out that wecan't beat them. We can bomb them. We can um attack them. We could even threaten to murder all 92 million of
press conference, and one of the reporters said to him, "There's been a ceasefire announced, but it appears that Iran is still attacking neighboring countries." Hegth's response to the reporter was, "Iran would be wise tofind a way to get their carrier pigeon to the troops out in remote locations to
far more chaotic decision-m is happening in the White House in the United States than it's happening in the government of Iran . They're rising power in the region as our power is is decliningprecipitously. What do you think happens next?
their guaranter of security. So all of this coalition, it's not all siding with Iran right now. It's fragmenting. And that's weakening America.So what happens next?
collapsing on its own. This was always in my view underestimating the power of Iran . And you say, well, where does my view come from? It came from the modeling of the bombing. What wouldhappen as this went forward? And none of these elements of Iran 's power were ever
the first bombs that killed the supreme leader that uh killed those other several dozen doves that he was meeting with? Iran 's oil fields. What he is probably um being given options for is how you
helium, all these critical elements for the production system all have to pass through this point. And obviously that's well within reach of any weapons from Iran . So they can say you do or do not pass depending on whether we approve or don't approve of your political yourcountry's attitude towards our country.
Yeah. What is the from everything you know 30 30 plus years studying this stuff? Iran running simulations on Iran , advising the White House, being a master and probably arguably the most informed person in the United States right nowabout air attacks like the one the US performing on Iran . What is the headline that you're trying to send to the world
is one of the concerns that actually my fiance had said to me. She said, I explained to her, I was like, you know, Iran , they really just have drones at the moment, so I think that's fine. And then she posed a question to me. She waslike, yeah, but what about suicide terrorism?
uh just after Khomeini had arrived. What is the Shah and what is Khomeini? Yeah, so the Shah uh the former monarch of Iran um the Pahlavi dynasty which came into power in the 1930s deposing a previous dynasty that had been aroundfor a couple hundred years. And um the he his father brought in that dynasty and then it was eventually he was
actually. From there he basically led the revolution that led to the Shah's uh removal um after in '79. And how was Iran different when the Shah was in power versus when Khomeini was in power?That depends on who you ask. Um it was a constitutional monarchy. The Shah had powers that exceeded beyond what we
always about oil. There's always a component of oil. And there are so many other oil options in that region besides Iran , right? Saudi Arabia, UAE, uh Bahrain, Qatar. They've they've they've got The United States couldpartner with other Arab countries to get what they wanted without having to deal with Iran . So,
about the motives here, Trump would often cite nuclear weapons as the motive saying he didn't want Iran to get nuclear weapons. Is is that what's going on here in your point of view? The 2025 national threat assessment that wasproduced by the ODNI in March, so less than a year old, specifically says that
produced by the ODNI in March, so less than a year old, specifically says that Iran was unlikely to pursue the development of nuclear enrichment or nuclear weapons. That was the assessmentof the the ODNI. And that instead their primary concern was that Iran was going to focus resources into the research of
stated priority here at home? We have an economic crisis here at home, an immigration crisis here at home. We have a crisis of politics Iran is sovereign, we we sit back and allow them to do that. It's It wasn't a civil war because one side was fighting
different way because of the generational shift. Iran war, and the Epstein files. But that doesn't make them Democrats. That just means they're a weaker demographic
post, he does talk about some frustration and disappointment with South Korea not helping him out in the Iran war. So some of us are also seeing it as a punishment of South Korea. Whatdoes this mean for the US relationship with South Korea in in terms of trade or or diplomacy?
I think the kind of hopeful reading of this is that President Trump is not getting what he was looking for from Iran . He's now looking for the you know, he hasn't gotten that victory, the easy win. So, he is kind of pivoting to NorthKorea, where he could possibly gain some kind of concession or get some kind of
on the strait before it returns to any wider talks. Iran 's top negotiator has said the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the United States meets Tehran'sdemands, including lifting a naval blockade.
Tom, stay with us for a second if you would because whilst there are no signs of a return to talks between the US and Iran , there is a US representative in the region today to try to finalize a peace deal with Gaza between Hamas andIsrael. President Trump's Middle East envoy, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, met the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
failure of Donald Trump's both military and diplomatic efforts when it comes to Iran and also as we've seen with Ukraine and Russia. Now, North Korea is an allyof Russia. It is believed to have have given military advice at the very least to the Iranians over there ballistic
Iran that he doesn't want to accept. I think most worryingly for those who are concerned about America's position in
Iran to reopen the Strait of Horus. This is what Donald Trump told Fox News.
Iran says it has reached a separate agreement with Oman for ships to transit the strait. Here's what Iran says about
Iran engage in lengthy negotiations that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but under very different terms to those that
Iran may not change its position, but as we have seen, the president is threatening to bomb Oman. How do you
Iran has absolutely used its leverage to its great advantage during the active
Iran is hoping that they will force the American hand the before the midterms.
Iran really underscored by the extent to which Tel Aviv was so opposed to the
Iran has 800,000 Afghans who have been there for 30 years.
Iran 's state controlled television network covered the story steadily and live.
Iran has made a habit of arresting dual nationals, because it does not recognize the part of their nationality