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Listen to native speakers pronounce “hoofbeats” in real conversational contexts with synchronized timestamps and subtitles.
but a lot of people don't- and a lot of people have to explicitly be disabused over their base rate neglect.There's a cliche in medical education: "If you hear hoofbeats outside the window, don't conclude that it's a zebra-it's much more likely to be a horse." And that's another way of getting people to take into account Bayesian priors.