that are millennials now this won't last forever there's one thing I know for sure and I'm not even as good of a forecaster or prognostic is is lizanne but it won't it won't last forever andso thinking about when it does go down 2% 5%
So there are classes of people, there's a tableau in "The Black Swan." So who's an expert? Weather forecasters , they're experts. Climate, we don't know.
No, I'm not saying that. The forecasters are often right. Last year, GDP grew 2%.
Last year, GDP grew 2%. Many forecasters forecast that GDP will grow this year at 2%. That's called extrapolation. And usually, in economics, extrapolation works.
So of course, if you're getting your information from a forecaster , the fact that he was right once doesn't tell you anything. The views of that forecaster would not be of any value to you unless he was right consistently. And nobody's right consistently in making deviant forecasts.
And let me just flag a couple pieces that strike me as a very interesting. If you look at forecaster 's projections for oil prices around the year 2000. They basically said we will have $20 oil forever.
Technology development somebody do that exercise these forecasters fundamentally forget what Precision they can do their calculations with and I'll give you a few examples they they're sort of fun I think uh we figured this out a long time
aided by macro forecasts. So am I saying that the forecaster is never right? No, I'm not saying that.
We work as parties. We are loyal to our teams, actually. And I'm not a forecaster , let alone a forecaster in property markets.
And what he found was that it had much less to do with what they know and more to do with how they think. So he classified these successful forecasters and unsuccessful forecasters into two kinds of groups. He called them foxes and hedgehogs.
to invest in can develop intuition because simply the market takes care of it. There isn't enough regularity in what's going to happen to prices for intuitions to develop. We also know about political forecasters when they forecast long-term, they are really no better than a dart-throwing monkey. And they are certainly not better than the average reader of the New York Times. Intuitions and the reason it's not the pundit's fault. And that research has been done with pundits and CIA analysts and regional experts. It is really
Now, I've introduced you to System 1 and System 2 and I've told you something about skill and about skill in System 1. Now I'd like to point out something that we sometimes have intuitions and that applies to political forecasters and to stock pickers and to all of us. Quite frequently we have intuitions that are false. And they come up and come to mind and they are subjectively undistinguishable from expert intuitions. So I'm now talking of people who have intuitions that are not based on expertise. And they come. They're System 1 in the sense
So how do you solve a problem like stuffication? Now my job-- the job of a trend forecaster , not comedian as we've already established-- is fascinating. It gives me really interesting insight, gives me a really unique viewpoint, and it opens me up to a lot of ridicule.
Since the original research, these results have been replicated again and again in all areas from general knowledge to motor skills, and it affects everyone, even experts. - I have a paper where we analyze the survey of professional forecasters . These are chief economists at various corporations and banks who are invited to forecast the state of the economy on a quarterly basis.
So the plan hasn't been working for a third of the working lives of the people who started this plan 15 years ago. Now, we're not forecasters . Things might pick up.
Who knew you'd been to Marrakech on your vacation? Who knew you'd been to a really great talk from a trend forecaster at lunch time? Thank you for staying with me there.
on the Big Island in 155 years. As we started recording this segment, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were warning Lala is tracking very close to the southern tip of the Big Island. Airports and ports are closed, evacuation centers open.
And I'll give you a concrete example of this. We have to apply for-- there's just about 12 to 14 forecasters working in the met area. And we're a very small met service.
So it's very good, because these warnings are issued by all the national met services. And over 9,000 people died, even though forecasters knew-- we could see it on the satellite.
But the short history is very good, and I'll recommend that to you. And one of the things he says is we have two classes of forecasters . The ones who don't know and the ones who don't know they don't know.
I talked to an advertiser once who said, I know my advertising works because I increase my expenditure every December, and what do you know, my sales go up. So what do you think is the best way to evaluate the performance of forecasters who are computing probability estimates for discrete events? And in particular, what if these events are rare?
people in the economy. I will now undercut myself, economists are lousy forecasters . And so you shouldn't believe anything I say about -- the future.
Sure. So a few years ago-- I've worked as a technology forecaster , and futurist, then a consultant in Silicon Valley for close to 20 years
As decision scientist Baruch Fischhoff wrote in 1994, when both forecaster and client exaggerate
and never was right any other time. So of course, if you're getting your information from a forecaster , the fact that he was right once doesn't tell you anything. The views of that forecaster would not be of any value to you unless he was right consistently.
And the truth is that our emotions are like the weather, we're good external weather forecasters , you knew it was gonna probably rain today because a forecaster told you or you could
And if you're at the wrong place at the wrong time, as Sean Collins the forecaster , explained to me, you could end up with a perfect storm scenario. It's just that not a lot of boats
But just in time, vital information was relayed by an unlikely group: weather forecasters ?
Because the human mind hates admitting the truth that the world is largely random and unpredictable, forecasters will always be in demand
Thankfully, the U.S. Air Force’s team of space weather forecasters informed military leaders of increased solar activity before any fighter jets took off.