his uh apology and his his death um the fallacy it's obviously it's obviously a very very difficult uh problem I think it's Amplified also by the way in which
be blank years old to get in. Also Fallacy just from the other direction, given where you are in your career. We're never gonna expect somebody who might be in their first or second year of professional experience to necessarily manage a team, whereas somebody who might
And I hope it's not as ugly as this. Ludic Fallacy is that the probability or the risk and uncertainty that we encounter in real life has very little to do with things you encounter in casinos and games.
So the notions here are the rise of moralizing deities. Ecological fallacy is sampling at the wrong scale.
'1984' is what people like to call a dystopian novel. The fallacy there is dystopias are imaginary places where people live in fear. Orwell is dead, but rest assured he's spinning like a bobbin in his grave." Bobbin are on a sewing machine-- I'll be explaining everything
But whatever the style, you just believe in them. The fallacy is that those kinds of positive assessments that we make about other people-- that they're all very subjective, that they're based on nuanced or indefinable criteria.
False nonreplication, far less than 1%. Perpetuated fallacy , 2%. Unconfirmed genuine discovery, 43%. And unchallenged fallacy , 53%.
I think that I often decided that-- I often thought that if I can just make people comfortable, they'll tell me the truth. But that is a fallacy . People are not ever going to be-- no matter how good your question is, people don't want to give you the answer, so you've got to learn how
that you're the only one and that because you're the only one, you're the special one. You're the one that made it. But it's a fallacy because we come with people and we never, ever come alone. We come with people who have gone before us, people who are beside us. People are going to come behind us, and we always have to know. We come with people.
Probably I called you on your birthday, or I just called you. So a grand fallacy of the idea I'll be happy when is, if we wait for all that happiness to come at the end of this goalpost, that's
to have an assortment of what are known as low-correlation assets. Sunk cost fallacy is this notion that I'm already in it.
And near perfect, I need to emphasize-- not perfect decision making at all. That's a fallacy . Scot Schmidt, who was one of the early extreme skiers had a great phrase-- flow used to make me feel like Superman up until the moment I'm not-- key important safety tip when it comes to this stuff.
I had to accept that I needed people around me who disagreed with me and actively make those steps. Meritocracy is an absolute fallacy .
Anything less than a total shift in mentality is nothing less than selling our collective soul for a salary. Worshiping gold is a fallacy . Stop asking for more.
They were not looking for handouts. That's a fallacy . Like I know that on a very deep, instinctive level, that that is a fallacy .
I call this the fallacy of uniqueness.
The false nonreplication, the discovery was correct but the replication was wrong. The perpetuated fallacy , discovery was wrong, the replication was also wrong. And challenge fallacy , discovery was wrong and replication was not done, because people didn't think that they should do it.
The perpetuated fallacy , discovery was wrong, the replication was also wrong. And challenge fallacy , discovery was wrong and replication was not done, because people didn't think that they should do it. And unconfirmed genuine discovery, the discovery was correct and the replication, again, was not done.
Perpetuated fallacy , 2%. Unconfirmed genuine discovery, 43%. And unchallenged fallacy , 53%. There's a lot of uncertainty in these numbers.
Which is also a fallacy . It's also a fallacy 'cause it's based on the assumption that you should stop learning when you graduate from college or business school. That that's sort
context may be a fallacy but it appealed to my mind that there could be some sort of structure that you could adhere to always and then divert from at a later point. So that just kinda
of another fallacy . It's just stupid. And if you look at the labeling on a homeopathic product, next time you're in a drug store, find one and check it out. And under active
And it's called the arrival fallacy .
I think that's the Nirvana fallacy .
about how the sunk-cost fallacy is so potent.
And you can imagine the fallacy of that kind of reasoning.
This is called the planning fallacy .
And that's like a fallacy .
And that is such a fallacy because it's not true.
But it would be a fallacy to suppose that this is a step function where, until we have fidelity at, say, 100%, whatever that means, we can't run the models
sometimes called the Texas sharpshooter fallacy , after the marksman who fires a bullet into the side of a barn, and then paints a bull's eye around the hole.
Let's begin with the Jetsons fallacy .
And among these things, there is something I call the ludic falalcy. Now why am I talking about ludic fallacy ? Because when I googled-- you guys just like, invented the word, I'm using google.
I don't see the connection with my work and my word, the ludic fallacy . But let me explain the ludic fallacy . And I hope it's not as ugly as this.
And ludic is coming from games in Latin. That's why I called it ludic fallacy . So this is sort of like, preparing the background for "Skin in the Game." And incidentally, the main idea of the "Incerto--"
And I call this the fallacy of uniqueness.
And we have a major fallacy of assuming everyone has the same problem.
that it's almost a fallacy to look for closeness just by quantity.
We call this the AI fallacy , and it pervades the academic literature, the popular literature, and actually it's just a common misconception.
kinds of things the big fallacy is that people make it overnight because they're so talented so brilliant someone
those kinds of financial Innovations are a fallacy they just simply simp do not
And great businesses do not suffer from sunk cost fallacy .
while dismissing forgetting information that controverts it or the sunk cost fallacy , which is our penchant to think that resources are already spent on an endeavor
But becoming aware of biases like the sunk-cost fallacy has definitely helped me make slightly better choices in my personal and professional life.
And it's such a-- I think it's a fallacy that a lot of people have that acting is just, you show up,
one of the themes of the book is the fallacy of meritocracy, the fallacy of equality of opportunity and egalitarianism.
That's the whole point about the sunk-cost fallacy , is that you just invested everything and you just don't want to give up.
The third misconception-- and most importantly-- is a fallacy of many photographers.
So there's that emerging sense of the fallacy of the burgeoning middle class in developing countries,
She was trying to cut through all of the fallacy that we're just individuals striving to get there, that you're a product of a family,