Ehrlich thought that rising metal prices would signify that population growth caused resource scarcity.
Ehrlich was a child of the suburbs in the sense that he loved chasing butterflies through the fields
Ehrlich was so concerned about the threat of population growth that he came to embrace the idea of triage, that some countries might be so far gone,
Ehrlich and his allies have insisted that the bet doesn't prove anything.
Ehrlich has bluntly stated, including recently in discussion of the bet in an interview, that there's nothing to learn from this story other
"Ehrlich became, according to Steiner's description, highly agitated--
On Ehrlich 's side, an apocalyptic vision that was fearful about human excess and over population.
So Ehrlich 's study of butterflies, which he's continued as a professor up the road here at Stanford-- this is the Bay Checkerspot
And Paul Ehrlich wrote the book "The Population Bomb," in 1968.
It would either bolster Ehrlich 's call for limits on population growth and his warnings of an environmental calamity.
That really brought Ehrlich to much greater fame.
So this is Ehrlich in 1971, I believe, on an Australian television show called "Monday Conference."
So that's Ehrlich 's idea that if you can take action now, then we can avoid problems in the future.
of ways with Ehrlich 's ideas.
"When Steiner met with Ehrlich , then Erlich's assistant producer, Steiner went almost immediately into his psychic role, insisting right off to two skeptical men that he possessed paranormal
were still friendly with Ehrlich 's parents, had attended the bar mitzvah of his brother Steve's son in Cleveland. Steiner asked Ehrlich if he had a brother, and when he did, Steiner
So this is Simon's response to Ehrlich .
He had a moral righteousness that Ehrlich also has, a moral righteousness about the need to address human excess and human wastefulness.
in a similar story to Ehrlich 's-- that we were going to have a population overshoot and then a collapse more or less right around now or in another decade
are the five metals from the Ehrlich Simon bet so it's sort of just the symbolic power of the bet
And that rather than embrace either Ehrlich or Simon, what we need to do is try to learn from their insights, learn
All this was pretty surprising to Ehrlich .
which led to the criminal proceedings against Ehrlichman, Haldeman, a number of others called, put a dozen or so White House aides in jail,
Or it would fuel Simon's attack on what he called Ehrlich 's "unfounded threats of doom."
And I want to talk a little bit about that because Ehrlich and Simon actually are very interesting characters who shared much in common.
Now, Ehrlich was a very popular, charismatic speaker with a biting wit, very entertaining.
Now, here Ehrlich is sporting sideburns.
And he expressed this in similar terms to Ehrlich , saying, "this change will either be made in our own initiative in a planned or rational way.
That has been the rhetoric of many like Ehrlich since 1960s or you could say it even goes back further to people
such powerful psychic vibrations as he felt with Ehrlich .
Had Ehrlich dated a girl in college with a peg leg?
"Steiner told me he felt compelled at this point to let Ehrlich know the truth, because Ehrlich was begging.
Now, Simon early on actually shared Ehrlich 's view about the threat of population growth.
One of the things that Dr. Ehrlich is saying is that things are so bad that people should not be allowed to have as many children as they may now want.
I think in interesting ways, the arguments between Ehrlich and Simon actually line up in striking ways with the division between Carter
So at first glance, the results of the Ehrlich Simon bet seem to suggest a simple story line.
of different challenges-- risks that we're taking in order to avoid the scarcity that Ehrlich like was warning of.
And this was a story about the biologist Paul Ehrlich , here on your left, author of the 1968 book "The Population Bomb,"
So if Simon sort of fell out with conservatives over his position on immigration, Ehrlich also had sort of a complicated relationship
Now, I wanted to give you a bit of a taste of Ehrlich and Simon.
Does anyone have a comment on that or-- -While I'm very intrigued by Dr. Ehrlich 's concern for the environment, for our future,
Now, Carter really brought the Ehrlich perspective into the White House in a lot of ways.
And it centered in some ways I think on the questions that were at the heart of the Ehrlich and Simon bet
And there was no note, but it was clear the check was from Paul Ehrlich to settle the bet on the metals.
But I think that story of Simon wins, Ehrlich loses is too simple an interpretation of this bet and of the larger clash between Ehrlich and Simon.
And, in fact, most of the reasons why Ehrlich would have won over this time period is the recovery from the tremendous collapse
So instead of being a simple morality tale, I think that the story of Ehrlich and Simon's bet reveals limitations on both sides
And I think that the dire rhetoric also makes it very difficult for the followers of people like Ehrlich to be willing to accept compromise
And people say, look, Ehrlich was wrong about the predictions.
He had gone on to be the producer of the Emmys and the Grammys, and Ehrlich had no way of knowing I knew Steiner.