Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The classic signs that we're in a And the bubble , I should emphasize, it's not a um you're in a bubble or you're not in a bubble . It's a degree thing. Okay? There is also that it's in weak hands. I canlook at now who is in these companies, right? And is it in strong hands or weak
It's going to change everything. And that is critical. If you If you mean to have a bubble , people think that a bubble is a mainly because it's a scam, and nothing could be further from the truth. The great bubbles always occuraround the very most important ideas.
You could argue depending on how you do it that it's 35 or 40 today, but it's not 65. So we have seen a much bigger bubble in Japan. And what happened? It went up and up and up and then it came down for 20 years.20 years? 20 years. They talk about the lost decade, but when you look at it closely, it looks more like a lost 20 years.
putting CO2 into the sea, making it much like a Coke warming up on your desk. Bubble off oxygen, that's vital for animals in the sea, and more corrosive because of the absorption of CO2, whichmeans the gills of the sharks and the tunas will be affected.
And we live in an age of, you know, stay away from politics, but when you think about the rise of a Trump, bubble up all around them, then actually deal with it head on.
pot I give them a generous pinch of salt now salt is like a little scrubbing bubble and it goes into the onions and it pulls out the onions natural sweetness I we don't really think ofonions as being sweet but there's a lot of liquid in here um a lot of sweet liquid that's going to be
matter what whatever comes out of the um out of us will be great period and we can't do that unless we create this bubble uh that we can live in without time and without budget so that was uh that was key and then he I think he's aa great uh advocate of um reminding us who we are and whenever we start to like
in 1987 when prices fell by 20% on a day with no news, the tech bubble in the '90s, the real estate bubble in the 2000s.Fischer Black-- one of the inventors of the Black Scholes formula-- in a paper wrote that he
"Stop taking this so seriously. Bubble ? Maggots? Bubble ? I like maggots.
"Stop taking this so seriously. Bubble ? Oh, let's go over there.
In the '70s, the US had double digit inflation. Bubble -- bubble territory again.
Next Or-- and you could put them in various kinds of orbits that would make it look like, what's called a Dyson Bubble , like this. And there are all kinds of ideas about how to maintain these structures, and therefore, over time, you would use up the resource.Next. And so, toward the end it might even look like this.
It could be traded without any anti-fraud requirements being tied to them, producing this shadow banking market, which encouraged--because of the uncertainty it spewed everywhere--the bubble which eventually burst and brought the economy down.But that alone, Kwak and Johnson say, wasn't enough.
should be to get outside of that bubble and um impress people outside of the bubble because they are um uh they're new to your sport they don't know reallyhow you do what you do and they think it's wonderful and fascinating and you can share and this is sort of the
made me decide to write about it all right so with that background let's let's get to the basics what is a bubble what is a financial bubble well the the the easy put is prices start going up when prices start going uppeople see hey you know what if I had bought here I would suddenly have more money so they buy their active buying
uh so the whatever the cost of ownership compared to rent is the fundamental value and what we saw in the real estate bubble was that the cost of ownership was double what you could rent something for it make no sense to own under thosecircumstances other than you believed that by owning you were going to make a bunch of money because the house was
uh the market runs out of buyers and uh one of the things that that's been talked about in this ongoing bubble uh as an affordability thing people couldn't afford to take on the more conservative 30-year fixed rate conventionally advertised mortgages so
about that the turmoil they were going through not unlike times like this some downsizing was going on technology bubble had burst a churn had stopped you know the churn was going on people were leaving and going various places and soshe was kind of Dazed and Confused like a lot of folks during this time and she finally said you know I finally realized
happened here I think both of these were bubbles this is a bubble and this is a bubble uh and uh what is a bubble it's a it's kind of a social epidemic it's afeedback loop uh as people see prices rising they get
what tends to happen then is it becomes interwoven as part of a story of uh of a bubble so the amplification mechanism is a feedback where U that is uh thatcauses the prices to feed back into more price increases and to also amplify
is the problem that we saw a succession of bubbles uh the the stock price bubble uh in the '90s and then following on a real estate bubble um now you it'sstill I don't think we have any clear idea why a real estate bubble followed the stock price bubble um but it seems
bubble had sustained the economy. In fact during the period of the bubble , savings
bubbles the kids were in a bubble so you couldn't hear them with restraints it had hundreds of cup holders and
stocks go up, and then if you look at the graph that's in front of you there, which shows his the history of asset bubbles , eventually there's a big collapse.Yeah. And you're saying that we're the collapse is on the horizon.
Bubbles sound interesting. And doing bubbles took me to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography with no idea what the ocean was.
Bubbles begin to form.
Bubbles pop. It's normal.
bubble103 is her user name.
bubbles that are uh highly leveraged through the financial system like mortgage uh debt uh where there's
Bubbles with text, awning, the word pizza.
bubbles of what could you do at the last minute-- everything, actually, including some stuff we never got to, like information, actually.
bubbles in this atmosphere and the bubbles are buoyant.
bubbles in champagne and you can collect
bubbles of trapped gas and through a magnificent uh feet of analysis they
going to be priced out forever those are some of the the key beliefs that are common to all bubbles uh all bubbles start by some kind of a cause there's something that makes prices go up now in residentialreal estate prices tend to go up anyway because people make more money their incomes increase with inflation they get these you know 3% cost of living
bubbles watch out be
bubbles create being created at random again and again each one of which then becomes a big bang uh but this has been
markets. Like 1929 bubble . Okay? Or the 2000 bubble . Okay? Which was the dot-com bubble . Does it impact real people as well? Cuz you said the economy and It did. 1929 bubble bursting impact real people? Yes, the Great
social bubble in which they lived that they were perfectly protected. And um we may tell
that bubble up. I like to be outside in my other times.
the bubble of wealth that I have in my life-- family and things-- I'm not going to be foolish.
another bubble , there's another bubble , there's another bubble .
The bubble snowman, we weren't doing that before.
the bubble burst and the idea went away.
the bubble you have to determine how many words can you fit in each panel without it overtaking the overtaking the
com bubble kind of supported that case the recession wasn't that bad the FED cut interest rates we had this you know
The bubble 's value is based on our perception of what it's worth, but if that consensus changes, that bubble 's going to burst.
That bubble burst. The earnings did not go down.
that bubble was burst after the Plaza accords, when effectively the United States forced Japan to overvalue-- to revalue an already overvalued yen.
The bubble that came up on your pizza there-- Say it again?